Good morning,
Delta Dunia – Key
takeaways from meeting with CFO
We met Delta Dunia’s (DOID IJ, Buy,
IDR1,500) Chief Financial Officer to discuss the outlook of Delta Dunia.
Followings are key takeaways from the meeting:
¨ Achieving targeted
FY17F overburden removal and coal production are quite challenging. Delta Dunia target
to reach FY17 overburden removal of between 360 and 400 m BCM and coal
production of between 45 and 50m tonnes. The realisation until 8M17 are 228m
BCM of overburden removal (average run rate in the last two months is 31m BCM
per month) and 27.4m tonnes of coal (average run rate in the last two months
is 3.6m tonnes per month). There is a possibility that the realisation of
FY17 volume below targets.
¨ Ramping up mining
contracting volume of Pada Idi project. In August 2017, Bukit Makmur got mining
contracting contract to do green field project for Pada Idi, which would do
200m BCM and 15m tonnes of coal throughout the contract. In FY18F, Bukit
Makmur would ramping up mining contracting volume of Pada Idi project to 24m
BCM (vs 2m BCM in 4Q17F) and coal production to 3m tonnes (vs 0 m tonnes of
coal in 4Q17F)
¨ FY18F mining volume should keep grow at
double digit growth.
Management thinks that Bukit Makmur’s FY18 mining contracting volume should
grow at double digit due to the combination from new client Pada Idi and most
of its clients plan to ramp-up overburden removal and coal production.
¨ Maintain Buy with TP:IDR1,500. Our TP:IDR1,500
impying FY18 P/E of 8.8x and FY18 EV/EBITDA of 4.8x. (Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CPA, CMT)
Link to daily
report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 161017
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Company Update:
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Bumi Serpong Damai –
9M17 marketing sales
Bumi Serpong Damai
(BSDE IJ) announced 9M17 marketing sales at IDR4.8trn (+17% YoY). This
accounts for 57%/66% from our/company’s full year target, still below its
5-yr historical average of 73% during Jan-Sep. However, management remains
confident that IDR7,225bn of marketing sales can be achieved by the end of
this year.
Management only
mentioned 1 upcoming housing cluster launch that is the Savia cluster with
target presales of ~IDR300bn. Meanwhile, the company currently has a
PRICELOCK program until end of this year where the initial 15% downpayment
may be paid up to 24x installment and the remaining payment of the 85% will
only start on 2020. Management expects to book around IDR1trn from this
program (similar to last year’s Price Amnesty Program achievement of
~IDR1.4trn). The company also plans to sell more commercial landplot with a
target of ~IDR1trn.
Based on the given
information, we estimate that marketing sales may reach around IDR7.1trn.
Therefore, we need to revisit our assumptions to better reflect current
condition. (Yualdo Tirtakencana)
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Media Highlights:
|
Corporate
Gas margin set at 7%
Motorcycle exports
at 124,232 units in 3Q17
Ciputra Development
has booked IDR5.25trn marketing sales in 9M17
Ace Hardware booked
11% SSSG in 9M17
Antam has realized
13% of rights issuance proceeds
|
Our
Recent Publication:
|
Sector Update: Building Materials –
Infrastructure Projects Boost Bulk Cement Sales Growth
Link to report: Infrastructure
Projects Boost Bulk Cement Sales Growth
|
Company Update: Ciputra Development – Toning Down Our
Forecasts
|
Corporate News Flash: Summarecon Agung –
9M17 Marketing Sales Are In Line With Estimates
|
Regional Thematic: Halal – An Earnings
Boost Strategy
|
Economics Update: September Inflation
Remains Moderate
Link to report: September
Inflation Remains Moderate
|
Company Update: Nippon Indosari Corpindo –
Details On Rights Issuance
Link to report: Nippon
Indosari Corpindo : Details On Rights Issuance
|
Sector Update: Coal Mining - Energy
Minister Does Not Agree With Cost-Plus Margin
Link to report: Energy
Minister Does Not Agree With Cost-Plus Margin
|
Company update: Tower Bersama Infrastructure – Not
Our Preferred Exposure In The Sector
|
Corporate News Flash: United Tractors –
Mining Equipment Sales To Stay Robust
Link to report: United
Tractors : Mining Equipment Sales To Stay Robust
|
Economics Update: BI Cuts Key Policy Rate
Further In September
Link to report: BI
Cuts Key Policy Rate Further In September
|
Best regards,
Andrey Wijaya
Senior Vice President
Research Analyst – Auto, Consumer, Cement
PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia
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