Good morning,
Alam Sutera – 9M17
Marketing sales below estimate
Alam Sutera (ASRI
IJ, BUY, TP: IDR540) booked 9M17 marketing sales at IDR1,261bn (-55% YoY).
This achievement only accounted for 34% of our full-year target of IDR3,728bn
(25% from company’s target of IDR5,000bn) and below its 4-year historical
average of 81%. Presales in 3Q17 was weak as it fell 30% QoQ & -66% YoY.
Based on our latest
discussion, the management has no plans to revise its target marketing sales.
We have also confirmed that it has not recorded the agreed land sales to
China Fortune Land Development (CFLD) (600340 CH, NR) in 3Q17 because there
were ~5% of the land yet to be acquired, thus we estimate this will be booked
in 4Q17.
Furthermore, management has yet to
close the IDR2trn Office Tower sale with the negotiation still ongoing
amongst three potential buyers. Based on 5-year historical data, we estimate
the average achievement in 4Q was IDR755bn, combined with 9M17 numbers and
land sales to CFLD in 4Q17 we estimate marketing sales by the end of the year
will be ~IDR3.02trn excluding the Office Tower sale. Currently we have a BUY
call on the counter with TP of IDR540, however we will be revisiting our
assumptions to better reflect current condition. (Yualdo Tirtakencana)
Link to daily
report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 131017
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Best regards,
Andrey Wijaya
Senior Vice President
Research Analyst – Auto, Consumer, Cement
PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia
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