Good morning,
September Exports
Moderate, Imports Pick Up
Exports
moderated to a growth of 15.6% YoY in September, following an increase of
19.2% in August. This was led by weakening non-oil & gas exports. Moving
forward, we envisage the export of goods and services to return to a growth
of 10% in 2017, vis-à-vis the -3.5% recorded in 2016. This is on the back of
a low base effect, a pick-up in primary commodity prices and an improvement
in global demand.
¨ We
expect the current account deficit (CAD) to widen in 3Q17. In
September, the trade account recorded a surplus of USD1.8bn from +USD1.7bn in
August. However, the cumulative trade surplus in 3Q was still lower than that
in 2Q, suggesting that Indonesia’s CAD in the balance of payments could
worsen during 3Q.
¨ Exports
moderated in September, on account of a slowdown in non-oil & gas
exports that is mainly driven by slowdown in CPO and a decline in electrical
machinery shipments.
¨ The
moderation in exports by destination was observed across both the advanced
countries and emerging markets. This was mainly on the back of
an easing of exports to ASEAN, the US and the EU, but partly supported
by resilient shipments to China and Japan.
¨ Imports,
however, picked up during the month. Import growth strengthened to
13.1% YoY (+9.1% in August on account of a pick-up in both oil & gas and non-oil
& gas imports, signaling stronger domestic economic activities. (Rizki
Fajar)
Link to report to be
sent out later
Link to daily
report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 171017
|
|
Company Update:
|
|
Arwana Citramulia –
9M17 results
Arwana's 9M17
earning came in at IDR83.9bn (+37.8% YoY), achieving 52.4%/50.7% of
RHB/consensus full year estimates, lower than our expectation. Sales rose to
IDR1267bn (+14.8% YoY), reaching 72.2%/71.4% of RHB/consensus.
In 3Q17, it posted
IDR22.4bn of net income (0.8% QoQ, 37.3% YoY) and IDR451bn of revenues (21%
QoQ, 27.4% YoY). Arwana sales volume increased to 13.4m sqm (+17.5% QoQ) and
ASP rose to IDR33,731/sqm (2.5% QoQ). Its opex per tonne declined to
IDR4,313/sqm (-1.6% QoQ, however COGS/sqm rose to IDR26,945/sqm (+5.9% QoQ).
Our forecast is
under review. (Andrey Wijaya)
|
|
Media Highlights:
|
|
Corporate
Indonesia’s foreign
debt at USD340.5bn
Floor price for
economy airlines raised to 40%
Summarecon Agung has
booked IDR2trn marketing sales in 9M17
Mitra Komunikasi
Nusantara targets IDR1.2trn from rights issuance
Pembangunan
Perumahan Properti recorded IDR2.33trn sales
|
|
Our
Recent Publication:
|
|
Sector Update: Building Materials –
Infrastructure Projects Boost Bulk Cement Sales Growth
Link to report: Infrastructure
Projects Boost Bulk Cement Sales Growth
|
|
Company Update: Ciputra Development – Toning Down Our
Forecasts
|
|
Corporate News Flash: Summarecon Agung –
9M17 Marketing Sales Are In Line With Estimates
|
|
Regional Thematic: Halal – An Earnings
Boost Strategy
|
|
Economics Update: September Inflation
Remains Moderate
Link to report: September
Inflation Remains Moderate
|
|
Company Update: Nippon Indosari Corpindo –
Details On Rights Issuance
Link to report: Nippon
Indosari Corpindo : Details On Rights Issuance
|
|
Sector Update: Coal Mining - Energy
Minister Does Not Agree With Cost-Plus Margin
Link to report: Energy
Minister Does Not Agree With Cost-Plus Margin
|
|
Company update: Tower Bersama Infrastructure – Not
Our Preferred Exposure In The Sector
|
|
Corporate News Flash: United Tractors –
Mining Equipment Sales To Stay Robust
Link to report: United
Tractors : Mining Equipment Sales To Stay Robust
|
|
Economics Update: BI Cuts Key Policy Rate
Further In September
Link to report: BI
Cuts Key Policy Rate Further In September
|
Best regards,
Andrey Wijaya
Senior Vice President
Research Analyst – Auto, Consumer, Cement
PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia
Disclaimer: This message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and may contain information that is confidential and privileged. If you, the reader of this message, are not the intended recipient, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. If you have received this communication by mistake, please notify us immediately by return email and delete the original message. This message is transmitted on the condition that the recipient accepts the inherent risks in electronic data transmission and agrees to release RHB group and RHB Securities from any claim which the recipient may have as a result of any unauthorized duplication, reading or interference with the contents herein. The contents herein are made in the personal capacity of the above-named author and nothing herein shall be construed as professional advice or opinion rendered by RHB group and RHB Securities or on its behalf.
