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RHB Indonesia - September Exports Moderate, Imports Pick Up (Economics, Awana Citramulia) Unknown Selasa, 17 Oktober 2017


Good morning,

September Exports Moderate, Imports Pick Up

Exports moderated to a growth of 15.6% YoY in September, following an increase of 19.2% in August. This was led by weakening non-oil & gas exports. Moving forward, we envisage the export of goods and services to return to a growth of 10% in 2017, vis-à-vis the -3.5% recorded in 2016. This is on the back of a low base effect, a pick-up in primary commodity prices and an improvement in global demand.


¨ We expect the current account deficit (CAD) to widen in 3Q17. In September, the trade account recorded a surplus of USD1.8bn from +USD1.7bn in August. However, the cumulative trade surplus in 3Q was still lower than that in 2Q, suggesting that Indonesia’s CAD in the balance of payments could worsen during 3Q.
¨ Exports moderated in September, on account of a slowdown in non-oil & gas exports that is mainly driven by slowdown in CPO and a decline in electrical machinery shipments.
¨ The moderation in exports by destination was observed across both the advanced countries and emerging markets. This was mainly on the back of an easing of exports to ASEAN, the US and the EU, but partly supported by resilient shipments to China and Japan.
¨ Imports, however, picked up during the month. Import growth strengthened to 13.1% YoY (+9.1% in August on account of a pick-up in both oil & gas and non-oil & gas imports, signaling stronger domestic economic activities. (Rizki Fajar) 
Link to report to be sent out later
Link to daily report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 171017


Company Update:

Arwana Citramulia – 9M17 results
Arwana's 9M17 earning came in at IDR83.9bn (+37.8% YoY), achieving 52.4%/50.7% of RHB/consensus full year estimates, lower than our expectation. Sales rose to IDR1267bn (+14.8% YoY), reaching 72.2%/71.4% of RHB/consensus.

In 3Q17, it posted IDR22.4bn of net income (0.8% QoQ, 37.3% YoY) and IDR451bn of revenues (21% QoQ, 27.4% YoY). Arwana sales volume increased to 13.4m sqm (+17.5% QoQ) and ASP rose to IDR33,731/sqm (2.5% QoQ). Its opex per tonne declined to IDR4,313/sqm (-1.6% QoQ, however COGS/sqm rose to IDR26,945/sqm (+5.9% QoQ).

Our forecast is under review. (Andrey Wijaya)

Media Highlights:

Corporate

Indonesia’s foreign debt at USD340.5bn
Floor price for economy airlines raised to 40%
Summarecon Agung has booked IDR2trn marketing sales in 9M17
Mitra Komunikasi Nusantara targets IDR1.2trn from rights issuance
Pembangunan Perumahan Properti recorded IDR2.33trn sales

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Corporate News Flash: United Tractors – Mining Equipment Sales To Stay Robust
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Best regards,

Andrey Wijaya
Senior Vice President
Research Analyst – Auto, Consumer, Cement
PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia


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