RHB Indonesia - Exports And Imports Rebounded in July After Festivity Unknown Rabu, 16 Agustus 2017




Good morning,

Exports And Imports Rebounded in July After Festivity

Exports rebounded to a growth of 41.1% YoY in July, after declining by 11.7% in June. We believe it was affected by the normalisation of working period after the long break due to Lebaran festivity. Moving forward, we envisage the export of goods and services to return to a growth of 14% in 2017, vis-à-vis the -3.6% recorded in 2016. This is an upward revision of our previous estimation of 10%, on the back of a low base effect, a pick-up in primary commodity prices and an improvement in global demand.


¨ We expect the current account deficit (CAD) to widen in 3Q17. In July, the trade balance reversed into a deficit of USD0.3bn from +USD1.6bn in June. This suggests that Indonesia’s CAD in the balance of payments could widen during the third quarter.
¨ Exports rebounded in July, mainly on account of a rebound in non-oil & gas exports due to the normalisation of working days.
¨ The improvement in exports by destinations were observed across both the advanced countries and emerging markets. This was mainly on the back of a rebound in exports to Japan, ASEAN, US and the EU, along with a pickup in exports to China.
¨ Imports returned to growth during the month. Likewise, imports rebounded to increase by 54% YoY (-17.4% in June). This was on account of an increase in both volume and price of non-oil & gas and oil & gas imports. (Rizki Fajar)


Link to report to be sent out later
Link to daily report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 160817

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Best regards,

Helmy Kristanto
Director
Head of Indonesia Research
PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia

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