Economics
Update:
Exports And Imports Decline In June Due To Festivity
Exports And Imports Decline In June Due To Festivity
Exports
reversed into a contraction of 11.8% YoY in
June, after rising to a growth of 24.6% in May. We
believe it was affected somewhat by the shorter working period due to the Lebaran
festivities and led by a decline in non-oil & gas exports. Moving forward,
however, we envisage the export of goods and services to rebound and to return
to a growth of 10% in 2017, vis-à-vis the -3.9% recorded in 2016. This is on
the back of a low base effect, a pick-up in primary commodity prices and a
gradual improvement in world merchandise trade volumes.
¨
We expect the current account deficit (CAD) to widen in 2Q17. In June,
the trade surplus bounced back to USD1.6bn from USD0.6bn in May. However, a
lower trade surplus was recorded in 2Q17, suggesting that Indonesia’s CAD in
the balance of payments could have widened during the quarter.
¨
Exports declined in June, mainly on account of a reversal
into a contraction in non-oil & gas exports. This was driven largely by a
decline in exports of mechanical machinery, rubber, and vehicles & parts,
along with a slower growth in the export of vegetable/animal oils & fats
(mainly CPO) and a larger contraction in exports of mineral fuels (mainly
coal). In addition, a slowdown in oil & gas exports was recorded,
particularly on a slowdown in price increase.
¨
Export declines were observed across both the advanced countries
and emerging markets. This was mainly on the back of a contraction in exports to Japan,
ASEAN, South Korea, the EU and the US.
¨ Imports reversed into a contraction during the month. Likewise, imports declined by 17.2% YoY. This was mainly on account of a decline in volume of non-oil & gas and oil & gas imports.
Kindly click the following link for the full report: Exports And Imports Decline In June Due To Festivity
Best regards,
¨ Imports reversed into a contraction during the month. Likewise, imports declined by 17.2% YoY. This was mainly on account of a decline in volume of non-oil & gas and oil & gas imports.
Kindly click the following link for the full report: Exports And Imports Decline In June Due To Festivity
Best regards,
Rizki Fajar
Vice President
Economist
PT RHB Sekuritas
Indonesia
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