RHB Indonesia Morning Cuppa - 13 June 2016- (Japfa Comfeed) Unknown Senin, 13 Juni 2016



Dear Siti,


Good morning,

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia : KKR To Buy 10.4% Stake For USD81.2m

KKR has signed a subscription agreement to purchase 10.4% of Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (Japfa) for USD81.2m (IDR1.07trn) through a combination of private placement of new shares and share sales by Japfa Limited, its holding company. Japfa would use the proceeds to pare down its debt. We fine-tune our estimate to incorporate the development above. Reiterate BUY and DCF-based TP of IDR1,150 (12% upside), implying 16.5x FY16 P/E. We remain upbeat on Japfa given:

1. Its net positive position, lower gearing and interest savings post-exercise;
2. KKR would have one seat in the board, giving rise to better corporate governance;
3. Japfa’s undemanding valuation of 15-12x FY16-17F P/Es.
¨ Briefly on KKR. Formerly known as Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co, KKR is a US multinational private equity firm that specialises in private investment in public equity. KKR also invested in Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (AISA IJ, NR), an Indonesian company engaged in distribution of snack, dried noodle and rice.
¨ 6.57% new shares issuance and 3.87% share sales. Japfa will hold an extraordinary general meeting on 1 July 2016 to approve a 2-year, non-preemptive rights issue programme of up to 10% of Japfa’s existing share capital at a floor price of IDR935.60/share. Once approved, Japfa will issue new shares worth 6.57% of the enlarged share capital, which KKR will subscribe. KKR will also purchase another 3.87% of Japfa’s existing shares from Japfa Limited.
¨ Proceeds earmarked to pare down debt. The exercise will yield IDR701bn for Japfa and IDR375bn for Japfa Limited. Management indicates that proceeds for Japfa are earmarked to pare down its short-term debt. The company’s net gearing would be reduced to 0.8x from 0.9x.
¨ Net positive, better capital structure and interest savings. Ceteres paribus, the new shares issuance would dilute Japfa’s earnings per share by 7%. However, the savings in interest expense would outweigh the dilution due to its high gearing and interest rate. All in, we increase Japfa’s FY16F-17F net profits by 8-9.6% respectively, while our EPS forecast are increased by 5-7% respectively after incorporating the new shareholding base.
¨ Industry landscape improving; reiterate BUY. The Ministry of Agriculture has recently issued regulation 26/2016, in which it would continue the parent stocks culling programme if poultry prices plummet again in 2H16. Previously, the culling of parents stocks was halted at 3m, vs the intended 6m due to price control allegations by the Indonesian Business Competition Supervisory Commission.
¨ Key risks are IDR depreciation and raw material cost fluctuations (in terms of local corn price, imported corn price and imported soybean meal price). Other more remote risks are disease outbreak and regulatory risks. (Norman Choong, CFA)

Link to Daily report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa - 130616




Media Highlights:
Economics

Bank Indonesia predicts June 2016 inflation to reach 0.59% MoM

Corporates

Blue Bird aims IDR82bn from premium vehicle sales
Blue Bird (BIRD IJ, BUY, TP: IDR7,500) targets to receive IDR82bn from the sales of its Silver Bird’s vehicles. The company estimated that it can sell 400 units of Silver Bird vehicles from 2009-2010 to the secondary market until the end of this year. Currently, Blue Bird used vehicle sale reached 60 units per months, with Mercedez Benz brand reached 30 units per month. The company will also introduce a promotion scheme to increase its sales. For example, Mercedez Benz E200 price will be lowered by IDR25m. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Comments: Given the slowdown in the current market condition for second hand cars, we think that the company’s target to achieve IDR82bn from the sale of second hand cars is achievable. In our model, we estimate that the company’s could receive IDR90bn (which is lower compare to FY14 of IDR124bn) from the sale of second hand cars – which is 10% from the net income. In the past, Blue Bird’s sale of second hand cars contributed roughly around 20% of the net income. (David Hartono)

Adaro aims for Jawa 1 power plant
Garuda Indonesia to prepare for more routes from United States
Indonesia Paradise Property aims 20% revenue growth
Modern Industrial sold 5.5ha of land in 1Q16
Golden Energy Mines to study the acquisition of new mine
Goodyear to optimize its production capacity
Jakpro to start LRT construction in September

Best regards,

Helmy Kristanto
Director
Head of Indonesia Research
PT. RHB Securities Indonesia