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Indonesia Morning Cuppa
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Top Story
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Mark Dynamics
Visit Note
We visited Mark Dynamics (MARK IJ), a
hand-glove former manufacturer, located in Medan. Here are the key takeaways:
¨ MARK went public in
1H17 and currently the market cap is IDR1.3trn (USD96.3m).
¨ MARK is the only
hand-glove former manufacturer in Indonesia with current capacity of 540,000
pieces/month, up from 420,000 pieces/month in 2017. It has 6 manufacturing
facilities in North Sumatra.
¨ The company mostly
exports their products that accounted for 90% from total revenue with
destinations such as Malaysia (65%), Thailand (15%), Vietnam (10%), and
Indonesia (10%). As of 9M17 69% of its sales went to a Malaysian buyer,
Hartalega Sdn Bhd (HART MK).
¨ With export
dominating its revenue, the company benefits from a stronger USD currency
against IDR.
¨ Managements boasts
of having the best quality of ceramic hand former in the region as well as
the largest production capacity of hand former in the world, which resulted
in the repeat orders from its buyers.
¨ Management intend to
increase its production capacity to 1 million pieces per month by 2022 based
on the projection of global gloves demand increase of 10% per annum. As of
2016, global demand for gloves reached 210bn units and gloves produced from
Malaysia, as the largest rubber glove supplier to the world accounting for
63% market share, was only 127bn units in the same year.
Analyst: Yualdo
Tirtakencana Yudoprawiro (6221) 2970 7062
Morning
Cuppa Full Report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 070218
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Other
Stories
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Coal Update
Indonesian Coal
Reference Price surpass USD100 per tonne, the first time since December 2016
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set Indonesian Coal
Benchmark Price (HBA) for February 2018 at USD100.69 per tonne (vs USD95.54
per tonne in January 2018), the highest since December 2016.
We think
the recent sell-off is an opportunity to accumulate coal stocks as they
should book strong earnings growth. Massive consensus FY18F earnings upgrade
should be a near-term catalyst for coal stocks. We like Adaro Energy (ADRO
IJ, BUY, TP: IDR3,100) and Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ, BUY, TP: IDR4,100)
Analyst: Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CFP, CA, CPA, CFTe, CMT (6221)
2970 7061
Morning
Cuppa Full Report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 070218
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Other
Stories
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Consumer Update
Disbursement of cash
transfer to be accelerated
The government will accelerate the disbursement of conditional
cash transfer (Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH)) subsidy to 10m families (from
6m families in 2017). This is to stimulate consumer spending, especially in
the low-end segment.
In 1Q18,
the government estimates household consumption growth is likely to be
stagnant, at around 4.9-5%. Medium-to-low end consumers are likely to hold
their spending amidst recent increase in food price, such as rice. However,
we see that harvest season (in February and March), as well as rice imports
should increase rice supply and reduce its selling price. At the end, it will
boost consumer confidence on their spending. Maintain Overweight on Consumer.
Analyst: Andrey Wijaya (6221) 2970 7058
Morning
Cuppa Full Report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 070218
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Bank Mandiri’s FY17
performance
Indonesia sets crude
price at USD65.59/barrel in January 2018
Wintermar Offshore
Marine to conduct private placement
BRI issued
IDR2.44trn bonds
Semen Baturaja’s
FY17 performance
Perusahaan Listrik
Negara to issue IDR3.23trn bond
Jenius BTPN
registered 350,000 accounts
Bank Tabungan Negara
targets net income to increase by 28% YoY in FY18
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TP
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Upside
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Catalysts
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(IDR)
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(%)
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Astra International
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9,500
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13
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Given the robust of
the All New Toyota Rush and Daihatsu Terios sales
orders, Astra has raised its monthly sales target. Its lowering of Daihatsu
Terios’ selling price while positioning Toyota Rush at a higher class are
seen as a good strategy to reclaim market
share. We also see the company’s coal mining unit benefiting from higher coal
prices. We raise its earnings estimates, and SOP-based TP to IDR9,500 (from
IDR9,200, 13% upside), implying 16-15x FY18F-19F P/Es. Key risk is the
intense competition in the auto industry. SAIC-GM Wuling just launched its
1.8-litre MPV – Wuling Cortez – with an attractive selling price. Maintain
BUY.
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BSD City
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2,650
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44
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Expectations of higher marketing sales due
to lower interest rates, which ought to incentivise mortgage users. BSD City
has the largest proportion of mortgage users vis-à-vis other developers.
There is also better monetisation from its large landbank.
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Bukit Asam
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4,100
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20
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Bukit Asam is the cheapest coal counter in
our coal universe. We think earnings growth should be the catalyst for its
share price. We believe investors’ concerns about a potential cost-plus
margins formula in determining coal selling prices to domestic power plants
should fade. This is based on our checks with several competent sources. The
formula is only valid for coal sales to new mine mouth power plants. It is
not for existing/under construction mine mouth power facilities.
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Indofood Sukses Makmur
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10,300
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28
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We expect higher domestic consumer spending
in 2018. This would be thanks to the Government stimulus initiatives for
low-end consumers. Indofood Sukses Makmur, as one of the largest food &
beverage (F&B) players, should benefit from this situation. F&B
accounted for around 62% of its total 9M17 EBIT. Higher flour prices may also
boost Bogasari Flour Mills’ earnings, which accounted for around 14% of the
company’s EBIT.
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Ramayana Lestari
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1,550
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34
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Consumer spending recovery – especially
from the lower income segment in 2018 – is likely to benefit Ramayana Lestari
after a flat performance in 2017. This is due to increased subsidies by the
Government that have been allocated in the 2018 budget via the Ministry of
Social Affairs. In addition, President Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) work-for-cash
programme is likely to help raise consumer spending.
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Recent
Stories
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To access
the following reports, please click on the link:
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Economics Update: Inflation Moderates In
January
Link to report: Inflation Moderates
In January
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Economics Update: Dec 2017 M2 Edges Down,
Loans Growth Picks Up
Link to report: Dec 2017 M2 Edges
Down, Loans Growth Picks Up
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Sector News Flash: Real Estate: Gaining
Attention
Link to report: Real Estate: Gaining
Attention
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Company Update: Astra International: Robust
Toyota Rush and Daihatsu Terios Sales
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Corporate News Flash: Perusahaan Gas
Negara: Transfer Approved But Merger Scheme Not Announced
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Sector Update: Mining: Monetising Coal
Price Momentum
Link to report: Mining: Monetising
Coal Price Momentum
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Corporate News Flash: Perusahaan Gas
Negara: What Is In The Price Now?
Link to report: Perusahaan Gas
Negara: What Is In The Price Now?
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Trading Idea: Integra Indocabinet Tbk:
Indonesia’s Largest Wood Furniture Maker
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Company Update: Logindo Samudramakmur: The
Beginnings Of a Multi-Year Up Cycle
Link to report: Logindo
Samudramakmur: The Beginnings Of a Multi-Year Up Cycle
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Economics Update: BI Still Holds Policy
Rate In January
Link to report: BI Still Holds
Policy Rate In January
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RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may
exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading
Buy:
Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook
remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall
within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take
Profit:
Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall
by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not
Rated:
Stock is not within regular research coverage
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