RHB Indonesia - Delta Dunia Makmur - Further Robust Volume Ahead (Delta Dunia Makmur, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional, Indofood CBP, Indofood Unknown Jumat, 28 April 2017




Good morning,

Delta Dunia Makmur – Further Robust Volume Ahead
Delta Dunia should book further increases in its mining contracting volume in the middle of the year, after the seasonal 1Q rainfall, further bettering its outlook. The company recorded stellar 1Q17 earnings of USD23.7m (+676% YoY), beating consensus (57% of FY17F consensus). Compared to its closest peer, United Tractors, it books much higher volume, while trading at a much cheaper valuation. We reiterate our BUY call with IDR1,500 TP (35% upside).


¨ Better weather in the middle of the year should further boost its mining contracting volume. Delta Dunia Makmur (Delta Dunia) booked strong growth in its 1Q17 overburden removal (+35.9%YoY) and coal getting (+30.8%YoY). Heavy rain, which is common in 1Q, led to Delta Dunia booking 1Q17 mining contracting volume of around 23% of our FY17F (in line with our expectation). In 2Q and 3Q, the weather should normalise (ie less rainfall than in 1Q), which should lead to a further increase in Delta Dunia’s mining contracting volume in these periods, and improve its outlook further.
¨ Its volume growth is much better than United Tractors’ Pamapersada Nusantara... For several years now, Delta Dunia’s mining contracting volume growth has been stronger than closest peer United Tractors (UNTR IJ, NEUTRAL, TP: IDR26,300). 1Q17 did not disappoint – against United Tractors, Delta Dunia beat at overburden removal growth (35.9% YoY vs the former’s 2.6%YoY) and coal getting (30.8% YoY vs United Tractors’ 1.6% YoY).
¨ ... and it trades at a much cheaper valuation. Delta Dunia trades at FY17F P/E of 7.6x and EV/EBITDA of 4.1x, compared to United Tractors’ 15.8x and 7.2x respectively). We think a continued series of excellent financial results may lead the market to re-rate Delta Dunia’s price multiple.
¨ Stellar 1Q17 financial performance beats consensus expectation. Delta Dunia booked strong 1Q17 earnings of USD23.7m (up nearly 700% YoY), significantly above consensus expectation (reaching 57% of consensus FY17F), but still within our expectation (26% of our FY17F). 1Q17 earnings growth was driven by a spike in its mining contracting volume and better mining contracting fees, as the average coal price stayed above USD75/tonne in 1Q17.
¨ Reiterate BUY call with TP of IDR1,500. Our TP of IDR1,500 is derived using DCF (WACC: 9.8%, TG: 1%), and implies 2017F P/E of 10.1x and EV/EBITDA of 5x, which is still cheaper vs United Tractors. We reiterate our BUY call as we think a potential near-term catalyst of a sizable consensus earnings upgrade would boost its share price.
¨ The key risk to our call would be a slump in coal prices. (Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CPA)

Link to Daily report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 280417




Results Review:

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN IJ, BUY, TP: IDR3,400), Bright Outlook Ahead

We expect BTPN to continue its focus on high-yield loan segments, with lower exposure to pension loans post the release of its 1Q17 results, which were in line with expectations. To compensate for lower SME loan yields, BTPN is expected to push for more productive poor products, Pico loans and consumer financing. In addition, its blended CoF should gradually improve on higher CASA deposits coming from BTPN’s Wow! and Jenius initiatives. All in, NIMs should stabilise at 11.6% this year. We maintain our BUY call and GGM-derived TP of IDR3,400 (31% upside).

*1Q17 results review: Fundamentals remain Intact. Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional’s (BTPN) 1Q17 results came in within expectations, highlighting the success of its resilient business model amid a challenging macroeconomic environment over the past three years. NIM expanded to 12% due to c.170bps reduction in its blended CoF. Additionally, credit cost remained manageable at 160bps given a well-managed loan portfolio – this is also reflected in its stable gross NPL ratio of 0.8% as of Mar 2017.
*Maintaining focus on high-yield loan segment. We expect BTPN to continue its focus on the high-yield loan segment, aside from pension loans that have already reached the mature phase. Small and medium enterprise (SME) loans, productive poor products, as well as Pico loans (loans with 1-month tenure and maximum IDR1m ticket size) would be the main growth engines for BTPN.
In addition, BTPN is partnering with Home Credit, a global consumer financing company, to provide white goods financing. Yet, we expect a 110bps drop in loan yield to 21.6% this year (2016: 22.7%), due to the higher portion of SME lending, which generates lower loan yields, and with minor contributions from Pico loans and consumer financing.
*Ample room for lower CoF. Several initiatives to lower blended CoF are still in progress, both in terms of acquired customers and new features, including BTPN’s Wow! (branchless banking product for the mass-market) and Jenius (for the urban market segment) products. As such, we expect CASA deposits to be elevated to 13.9% by year-end, and would continue to increase to 15.8% by end-2018. By doing so, blended CoF would gradually decline to 6.8% this year, before a significant drop to 6.3% in 2018F according to our model.
*Maintain BUY and TP of IDR3,400. We maintain our BUY call on the counter with an unchanged GGM-derived TP of IDR3,400. Our TP implies 2017F P/BV of 1.18x, below its average 8-year P/BV multiple of 1.9x. The main drawback for BTPN is the low trading liquidity of its shares in the market.
*Risks to our call include the bank’s micro lending unit being in direct competition with the Government’s People Business Credit (KUR), and tight liquidity within the system that may lead to higher blended CoF. (Eka Savitri)


Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ, BUY, TP: IDR10,200), 1Q Results Highlights

Indofood’s 1Q17 earnings jumped 42% QoQ to IDR1.1trn. This was in line with our estimate, but above consensus expectation reached 25% and 28% of our and consenses full-year estimates, respectively. Robust earning was driven by widened EBIT margin which improved to 16% in 1Q17 (from 12.1% in 4Q16) which we see this is likely be driven by higher ASP. On our ground check, in 1Q17, Indofood CBP raised its noodle selling price in range 1%-2% QoQ.

We maintain BUY on Indofood CBP with DCF-based TP of IDR10,200 (17% upside), implying 27x/21x FY17F-18F P/Es. (Andrey Wijaya)


Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ, BUY, TP: IDR10,300), 1Q Results Highlights

Indofood Sukses’ 1Q17 earning rose 33% QoQ. This was in line with our, but above consensus expectation which achieved 25% and 27% of our and consensus full-year estimates. Earning was driven by widened EBIT margin which improved to 14.5% in 1Q17 (4Q16: 13.9%) which likely be driven by higher noodles selling price.

We maintan BUY with DCF-based IDR10,300 TP (22% upside), implying 19x/16x FY17F-18F P/Es respectively. We see Indofood balance sheet risk become healthier after Minzhong divestment with lower debts and lower foreign currency volatility risk. (Andrey Wijaya)

Waskita Karya (WSKT IJ, BUY, TP: IDR4,000), Strong 1Q17 results

Waskita Karya’s net profit soared to IDR450bn (+253%YoY, -28%QoQ) in 1Q17, accounted for 18.2%/19.5% to our/consensus estimates, above its last year’s seasonality of 7.4% in 1Q16. Its revenue reached IDR7.1trn (+132%YoY, -27% YoY), 19.3%/20.1% to our/consensus target, above last year’s seasonality of 13% in 1Q16. Up to 1Q17, Waskita Karya has raked IDR11.65trn (+197.2% YoY) new contracts, accounted for 16.6%/14.6% to our/company’s guidance FY17F. Maintain BUY on the stock as its outlook remains positive. (Dony Gunawan)


Wijaya Karya Persero (WIKA IJ, Neutral, TP: IDR2,600), Positive Outlook Thus Far

Wijaya Karya posted strong results in 1Q17 mainly driven by its Infrastructure & Building segment that saw revenue almost doubled with profits from its joint operation (JO) growing +395.1% YoY. The company’s new contracts have reached IDR17trn or up 42.6% of our FY17 estimate. It expects this strong performance to continue in 2Q17. On the other hand, we have not seen clarity on the financial closure and construction of HSR projects. Moreover, the stock is currently trading at 19.3x FY17F P/E, making it the most expensive state-owned contractor. As such, we maintain our NEUTRAL call with an unchanged IDR2,600 TP (9% upside).

¨ 1Q17 strong results. Wijaya Karya Persero’s (Wijaya Karya) revenue came in at IDR3.8trn (+39.9%YoY) in 1Q17. This accounted for 17% of our FY17 estimate, which is in line with last year’s seasonality. It was driven by the Infrastructure and Building segment that saw its revenue nearly doubled from last year.
Its 1Q17 net profit stood at IDR245bn (+242.0%YoY), around 22% of our FY17 net profit estimate, which was above last year’s seasonality of only 5%, but it is in line with the average FY10-15 seasonality. It was mainly spurred by profits from the JO, which was up by +395.1% YoY and higher interest income.
Its GM was relatively stable at 10.8% in 1Q17, while its GM after JO improved significantly to 14.7% (vs 11.8% in 1Q16). Thus, net margin was 6.4%, a surge from only 2.6% in 1Q16.
¨ Update on HSR. Wijaya Karya has signed a construction contract with Kereta Cepat Indonesia China (KCIC) worth IDR15.8trn (nearly 30% to last year’s new contract) for the construction of the High Speed Railway (HSR) last year. However, the financial closure with the China representative have not been signed until now. Discussions between Indonesia and China representatives are still on going. We still conservatively expect IDR3trn in revenue from HSR this year, below the company’s expectations of recording a third of the contract’s value.
¨ Stellar new contract performance. The company has successfully booked IDR17trn worth of new contracts in 1Q17 (+202% YoY), or 42.6% to our FY17 estimate. Having said that, it aims to collect up to 60% of FY17F new contracts in 1H17, which would be above the average past two years seasonality of 35% in 1H. Hence we maintain our new contracts FY17 estimate at IDR40trn.
¨ Maintain NEUTRAL with an unchanged TP of IDR2,600, as we see the stock as the most expensive state-owned contractor in the market (trading at 19.3x FY17F P/E) with a single digit ROE this year. We also view the delay on the HSR project as an overhang on the stock. (Dony Gunawan)



Media Highlights:

Corporate

Indosat to issue IDR3trn in bonds
Sampoerna Agro books IDR158bn net income in 1Q17
HM Sampoerna announces IDR12.5trn dividends
Puradelta Lestari records IDR222bn revenues in 1Q17
Semen Baturaja’s profit up by 13%
Jasa Marga realizes 60% of budgeted capex
Indika Energy books positive results in 1Q17


Our Recent Publication:
Corporate News Flash: Surya Semesta Internusa – Key Takeaways From ASEAN Small Cap Book Launch
Results Review: Perusahaan Gas Negara – Improvement On Opex Normalisation And E&P Profit
Economics Update: BI Continues To Hold Key Policy Rate In April
Results Review: Arwana Citramulia – Better Sales Mix And Efficiency To Boost Earnings
Results Review: Bank Tabungan Negara – To Stay Housing-Centric
Economics Update: Exports And Imports Accelerate In March
Reinitiating Coverage: Surya Semesta Internusa – Subang Industrial Estate As a Future Driver
Sector Update: Retailing - Upper segments, mid-ticket items seem to fare better
Reinitiating Coverage: Delta Dunia Makmur –Strong Projected Earnings Growth In 2017F
Sector Update: Plantation – Inventory Restocking Has Begun
Company Update: Bank Rakyat Indonesia – Ample Room To Grow
Corporate News Flash: IPO Plan For F&B Subsidiary, MAP Boga?


Best regards,

Helmy Kristanto
Director
Head of Indonesia Research
PT. RHB Securities Indonesia
DID: (6221) 2970 7056
Fax: (6221) 2783 0777


Disclaimer: This message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and may contain information that is confidential and privileged.  If you, the reader of this message, are not the intended recipient, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication.  If you have received this communication by mistake, please notify us immediately by return email and delete the original message.  This message is transmitted on the condition that the recipient accepts the inherent risks in electronic data transmission and agrees to release RHB group and RHB Securities from any claim which the recipient may have as a result of any unauthorized duplication, reading or interference with the contents herein. The contents herein are made in the personal capacity of the above-named author and nothing herein shall be construed as professional advice or opinion rendered by RHB group and RHB Securities or on its behalf.

Dear Siti,

Good morning,

Delta Dunia Makmur – Further Robust Volume Ahead
Delta Dunia should book further increases in its mining contracting volume in the middle of the year, after the seasonal 1Q rainfall, further bettering its outlook. The company recorded stellar 1Q17 earnings of USD23.7m (+676% YoY), beating consensus (57% of FY17F consensus). Compared to its closest peer, United Tractors, it books much higher volume, while trading at a much cheaper valuation. We reiterate our BUY call with IDR1,500 TP (35% upside).

¨ Better weather in the middle of the year should further boost its mining contracting volume. Delta Dunia Makmur (Delta Dunia) booked strong growth in its 1Q17 overburden removal (+35.9%YoY) and coal getting (+30.8%YoY). Heavy rain, which is common in 1Q, led to Delta Dunia booking 1Q17 mining contracting volume of around 23% of our FY17F (in line with our expectation). In 2Q and 3Q, the weather should normalise (ie less rainfall than in 1Q), which should lead to a further increase in Delta Dunia’s mining contracting volume in these periods, and improve its outlook further.
¨ Its volume growth is much better than United Tractors’ Pamapersada Nusantara... For several years now, Delta Dunia’s mining contracting volume growth has been stronger than closest peer United Tractors (UNTR IJ, NEUTRAL, TP: IDR26,300). 1Q17 did not disappoint – against United Tractors, Delta Dunia beat at overburden removal growth (35.9% YoY vs the former’s 2.6%YoY) and coal getting (30.8% YoY vs United Tractors’ 1.6% YoY).
¨ ... and it trades at a much cheaper valuation. Delta Dunia trades at FY17F P/E of 7.6x and EV/EBITDA of 4.1x, compared to United Tractors’ 15.8x and 7.2x respectively). We think a continued series of excellent financial results may lead the market to re-rate Delta Dunia’s price multiple.
¨ Stellar 1Q17 financial performance beats consensus expectation. Delta Dunia booked strong 1Q17 earnings of USD23.7m (up nearly 700% YoY), significantly above consensus expectation (reaching 57% of consensus FY17F), but still within our expectation (26% of our FY17F). 1Q17 earnings growth was driven by a spike in its mining contracting volume and better mining contracting fees, as the average coal price stayed above USD75/tonne in 1Q17.
¨ Reiterate BUY call with TP of IDR1,500. Our TP of IDR1,500 is derived using DCF (WACC: 9.8%, TG: 1%), and implies 2017F P/E of 10.1x and EV/EBITDA of 5x, which is still cheaper vs United Tractors. We reiterate our BUY call as we think a potential near-term catalyst of a sizable consensus earnings upgrade would boost its share price.
¨ The key risk to our call would be a slump in coal prices. (Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CPA)

Link to Daily report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 280417




Results Review:

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN IJ, BUY, TP: IDR3,400), Bright Outlook Ahead

We expect BTPN to continue its focus on high-yield loan segments, with lower exposure to pension loans post the release of its 1Q17 results, which were in line with expectations. To compensate for lower SME loan yields, BTPN is expected to push for more productive poor products, Pico loans and consumer financing. In addition, its blended CoF should gradually improve on higher CASA deposits coming from BTPN’s Wow! and Jenius initiatives. All in, NIMs should stabilise at 11.6% this year. We maintain our BUY call and GGM-derived TP of IDR3,400 (31% upside).

*1Q17 results review: Fundamentals remain Intact. Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional’s (BTPN) 1Q17 results came in within expectations, highlighting the success of its resilient business model amid a challenging macroeconomic environment over the past three years. NIM expanded to 12% due to c.170bps reduction in its blended CoF. Additionally, credit cost remained manageable at 160bps given a well-managed loan portfolio – this is also reflected in its stable gross NPL ratio of 0.8% as of Mar 2017.
*Maintaining focus on high-yield loan segment. We expect BTPN to continue its focus on the high-yield loan segment, aside from pension loans that have already reached the mature phase. Small and medium enterprise (SME) loans, productive poor products, as well as Pico loans (loans with 1-month tenure and maximum IDR1m ticket size) would be the main growth engines for BTPN.
In addition, BTPN is partnering with Home Credit, a global consumer financing company, to provide white goods financing. Yet, we expect a 110bps drop in loan yield to 21.6% this year (2016: 22.7%), due to the higher portion of SME lending, which generates lower loan yields, and with minor contributions from Pico loans and consumer financing.
*Ample room for lower CoF. Several initiatives to lower blended CoF are still in progress, both in terms of acquired customers and new features, including BTPN’s Wow! (branchless banking product for the mass-market) and Jenius (for the urban market segment) products. As such, we expect CASA deposits to be elevated to 13.9% by year-end, and would continue to increase to 15.8% by end-2018. By doing so, blended CoF would gradually decline to 6.8% this year, before a significant drop to 6.3% in 2018F according to our model.
*Maintain BUY and TP of IDR3,400. We maintain our BUY call on the counter with an unchanged GGM-derived TP of IDR3,400. Our TP implies 2017F P/BV of 1.18x, below its average 8-year P/BV multiple of 1.9x. The main drawback for BTPN is the low trading liquidity of its shares in the market.
*Risks to our call include the bank’s micro lending unit being in direct competition with the Government’s People Business Credit (KUR), and tight liquidity within the system that may lead to higher blended CoF. (Eka Savitri)


Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ, BUY, TP: IDR10,200), 1Q Results Highlights

Indofood’s 1Q17 earnings jumped 42% QoQ to IDR1.1trn. This was in line with our estimate, but above consensus expectation reached 25% and 28% of our and consenses full-year estimates, respectively. Robust earning was driven by widened EBIT margin which improved to 16% in 1Q17 (from 12.1% in 4Q16) which we see this is likely be driven by higher ASP. On our ground check, in 1Q17, Indofood CBP raised its noodle selling price in range 1%-2% QoQ.

We maintain BUY on Indofood CBP with DCF-based TP of IDR10,200 (17% upside), implying 27x/21x FY17F-18F P/Es. (Andrey Wijaya)


Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ, BUY, TP: IDR10,300), 1Q Results Highlights

Indofood Sukses’ 1Q17 earning rose 33% QoQ. This was in line with our, but above consensus expectation which achieved 25% and 27% of our and consensus full-year estimates. Earning was driven by widened EBIT margin which improved to 14.5% in 1Q17 (4Q16: 13.9%) which likely be driven by higher noodles selling price.

We maintan BUY with DCF-based IDR10,300 TP (22% upside), implying 19x/16x FY17F-18F P/Es respectively. We see Indofood balance sheet risk become healthier after Minzhong divestment with lower debts and lower foreign currency volatility risk. (Andrey Wijaya)

Waskita Karya (WSKT IJ, BUY, TP: IDR4,000), Strong 1Q17 results

Waskita Karya’s net profit soared to IDR450bn (+253%YoY, -28%QoQ) in 1Q17, accounted for 18.2%/19.5% to our/consensus estimates, above its last year’s seasonality of 7.4% in 1Q16. Its revenue reached IDR7.1trn (+132%YoY, -27% YoY), 19.3%/20.1% to our/consensus target, above last year’s seasonality of 13% in 1Q16. Up to 1Q17, Waskita Karya has raked IDR11.65trn (+197.2% YoY) new contracts, accounted for 16.6%/14.6% to our/company’s guidance FY17F. Maintain BUY on the stock as its outlook remains positive. (Dony Gunawan)


Wijaya Karya Persero (WIKA IJ, Neutral, TP: IDR2,600), Positive Outlook Thus Far

Wijaya Karya posted strong results in 1Q17 mainly driven by its Infrastructure & Building segment that saw revenue almost doubled with profits from its joint operation (JO) growing +395.1% YoY. The company’s new contracts have reached IDR17trn or up 42.6% of our FY17 estimate. It expects this strong performance to continue in 2Q17. On the other hand, we have not seen clarity on the financial closure and construction of HSR projects. Moreover, the stock is currently trading at 19.3x FY17F P/E, making it the most expensive state-owned contractor. As such, we maintain our NEUTRAL call with an unchanged IDR2,600 TP (9% upside).

¨ 1Q17 strong results. Wijaya Karya Persero’s (Wijaya Karya) revenue came in at IDR3.8trn (+39.9%YoY) in 1Q17. This accounted for 17% of our FY17 estimate, which is in line with last year’s seasonality. It was driven by the Infrastructure and Building segment that saw its revenue nearly doubled from last year.
Its 1Q17 net profit stood at IDR245bn (+242.0%YoY), around 22% of our FY17 net profit estimate, which was above last year’s seasonality of only 5%, but it is in line with the average FY10-15 seasonality. It was mainly spurred by profits from the JO, which was up by +395.1% YoY and higher interest income.
Its GM was relatively stable at 10.8% in 1Q17, while its GM after JO improved significantly to 14.7% (vs 11.8% in 1Q16). Thus, net margin was 6.4%, a surge from only 2.6% in 1Q16.
¨ Update on HSR. Wijaya Karya has signed a construction contract with Kereta Cepat Indonesia China (KCIC) worth IDR15.8trn (nearly 30% to last year’s new contract) for the construction of the High Speed Railway (HSR) last year. However, the financial closure with the China representative have not been signed until now. Discussions between Indonesia and China representatives are still on going. We still conservatively expect IDR3trn in revenue from HSR this year, below the company’s expectations of recording a third of the contract’s value.
¨ Stellar new contract performance. The company has successfully booked IDR17trn worth of new contracts in 1Q17 (+202% YoY), or 42.6% to our FY17 estimate. Having said that, it aims to collect up to 60% of FY17F new contracts in 1H17, which would be above the average past two years seasonality of 35% in 1H. Hence we maintain our new contracts FY17 estimate at IDR40trn.
¨ Maintain NEUTRAL with an unchanged TP of IDR2,600, as we see the stock as the most expensive state-owned contractor in the market (trading at 19.3x FY17F P/E) with a single digit ROE this year. We also view the delay on the HSR project as an overhang on the stock. (Dony Gunawan)



Media Highlights:

Corporate

Indosat to issue IDR3trn in bonds
Sampoerna Agro books IDR158bn net income in 1Q17
HM Sampoerna announces IDR12.5trn dividends
Puradelta Lestari records IDR222bn revenues in 1Q17
Semen Baturaja’s profit up by 13%
Jasa Marga realizes 60% of budgeted capex
Indika Energy books positive results in 1Q17


Our Recent Publication:
Corporate News Flash: Surya Semesta Internusa – Key Takeaways From ASEAN Small Cap Book Launch
Results Review: Perusahaan Gas Negara – Improvement On Opex Normalisation And E&P Profit
Economics Update: BI Continues To Hold Key Policy Rate In April
Results Review: Arwana Citramulia – Better Sales Mix And Efficiency To Boost Earnings
Results Review: Bank Tabungan Negara – To Stay Housing-Centric
Economics Update: Exports And Imports Accelerate In March
Reinitiating Coverage: Surya Semesta Internusa – Subang Industrial Estate As a Future Driver
Sector Update: Retailing - Upper segments, mid-ticket items seem to fare better
Reinitiating Coverage: Delta Dunia Makmur –Strong Projected Earnings Growth In 2017F
Sector Update: Plantation – Inventory Restocking Has Begun
Company Update: Bank Rakyat Indonesia – Ample Room To Grow
Corporate News Flash: IPO Plan For F&B Subsidiary, MAP Boga?


Best regards,

Helmy Kristanto
Director
Head of Indonesia Research
PT. RHB Securities Indonesia
DID: (6221) 2970 7056
Fax: (6221) 2783 0777


Disclaimer: This message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and may contain information that is confidential and privileged.  If you, the reader of this message, are not the intended recipient, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication.  If you have received this communication by mistake, please notify us immediately by return email and delete the original message.  This message is transmitted on the condition that the recipient accepts the inherent risks in electronic data transmission and agrees to release RHB group and RHB Securities from any claim which the recipient may have as a result of any unauthorized duplication, reading or interference with the contents herein. The contents herein are made in the personal capacity of the above-named author and nothing herein shall be construed as professional advice or opinion rendered by RHB group and RHB Securities or on its behalf.