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Good morning,
Delta
Dunia Makmur – Further Robust Volume Ahead
Delta Dunia should
book further increases in its mining contracting volume in the middle of the
year, after the seasonal 1Q rainfall, further bettering its outlook. The
company recorded stellar 1Q17 earnings of USD23.7m (+676% YoY), beating
consensus (57% of FY17F consensus). Compared to its closest peer, United
Tractors, it books much higher volume, while trading at a much cheaper
valuation. We reiterate our BUY call with IDR1,500 TP (35% upside).
¨ Better weather in
the middle of the year should further boost its mining contracting volume. Delta Dunia Makmur
(Delta Dunia) booked strong growth in its 1Q17 overburden removal (+35.9%YoY)
and coal getting (+30.8%YoY). Heavy rain, which is common in 1Q, led to Delta
Dunia booking 1Q17 mining contracting volume of around 23% of our FY17F (in
line with our expectation). In 2Q and 3Q, the weather should normalise (ie
less rainfall than in 1Q), which should lead to a further increase in Delta
Dunia’s mining contracting volume in these periods, and improve its outlook
further.
¨ Its volume growth
is much better than United Tractors’ Pamapersada Nusantara... For several years
now, Delta Dunia’s mining contracting volume growth has been stronger
than closest peer United Tractors (UNTR IJ, NEUTRAL, TP: IDR26,300). 1Q17 did
not disappoint – against United Tractors, Delta Dunia beat at overburden
removal growth (35.9% YoY vs the former’s 2.6%YoY) and coal getting (30.8%
YoY vs United Tractors’ 1.6% YoY).
¨ ... and it trades
at a much cheaper valuation. Delta Dunia trades at FY17F P/E of 7.6x
and EV/EBITDA of 4.1x, compared to United Tractors’ 15.8x and 7.2x
respectively). We think a continued series of excellent financial results may
lead the market to re-rate Delta Dunia’s price multiple.
¨ Stellar 1Q17
financial performance beats consensus expectation. Delta Dunia booked
strong 1Q17 earnings of USD23.7m (up nearly 700% YoY), significantly above
consensus expectation (reaching 57% of consensus FY17F), but still within our
expectation (26% of our FY17F). 1Q17 earnings growth was driven by a spike in
its mining contracting volume and better mining contracting fees, as the
average coal price stayed above USD75/tonne in 1Q17.
¨ Reiterate BUY call with TP of IDR1,500. Our TP of IDR1,500
is derived using DCF (WACC: 9.8%, TG: 1%), and implies 2017F P/E of 10.1x and
EV/EBITDA of 5x, which is still cheaper vs United Tractors. We reiterate our
BUY call as we think a potential near-term catalyst of a sizable consensus
earnings upgrade would boost its share price.
¨ The key risk to our call would
be a slump in coal prices. (Hariyanto
Wijaya, CFA, CPA)
Link
to report: Delta Dunia Makmur : Further Robust Volume Ahead
Link
to Daily report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 280417
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Results Review:
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Bank
Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN IJ, BUY, TP: IDR3,400), Bright
Outlook Ahead
We expect BTPN to
continue its focus on high-yield loan segments, with lower exposure to
pension loans post the release of its 1Q17 results, which were in line with
expectations. To compensate for lower SME loan yields, BTPN is expected to
push for more productive poor products, Pico loans and consumer financing. In
addition, its blended CoF should gradually improve on higher CASA deposits
coming from BTPN’s Wow! and Jenius initiatives. All in, NIMs
should stabilise at 11.6% this year. We maintain our BUY call and GGM-derived
TP of IDR3,400 (31% upside).
In
addition, BTPN is partnering with Home Credit, a global consumer financing
company, to provide white goods financing. Yet, we expect a 110bps drop in
loan yield to 21.6% this year (2016: 22.7%), due to the higher portion of SME
lending, which generates lower loan yields, and with minor contributions from
Pico loans and consumer financing.
Link to report: Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional : Bright Outlook Ahead
Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ, BUY, TP: IDR10,200),
1Q Results Highlights
Indofood’s 1Q17
earnings jumped 42% QoQ to IDR1.1trn. This was in line with our estimate, but
above consensus expectation reached 25% and 28% of our and consenses
full-year estimates, respectively. Robust earning was driven by widened EBIT
margin which improved to 16% in 1Q17 (from 12.1% in 4Q16) which we see this
is likely be driven by higher ASP. On our ground check, in 1Q17, Indofood CBP
raised its noodle selling price in range 1%-2% QoQ.
We maintain BUY on
Indofood CBP with DCF-based TP of IDR10,200 (17% upside), implying 27x/21x
FY17F-18F P/Es. (Andrey Wijaya)
Indofood Sukses
Makmur (INDF IJ, BUY, TP: IDR10,300), 1Q Results Highlights
Indofood Sukses’
1Q17 earning rose 33% QoQ. This was in line with our, but above
consensus expectation which achieved 25% and 27% of our and consensus
full-year estimates. Earning was driven by widened EBIT margin which improved
to 14.5% in 1Q17 (4Q16: 13.9%) which likely be driven by higher noodles
selling price.
We maintan BUY with
DCF-based IDR10,300 TP (22% upside), implying 19x/16x FY17F-18F P/Es
respectively. We see Indofood balance sheet risk become healthier after
Minzhong divestment with lower debts and lower foreign currency volatility
risk. (Andrey Wijaya)
Waskita Karya (WSKT
IJ, BUY, TP: IDR4,000), Strong 1Q17 results
Waskita Karya’s net
profit soared to IDR450bn (+253%YoY, -28%QoQ) in 1Q17, accounted for
18.2%/19.5% to our/consensus estimates, above its last year’s seasonality of
7.4% in 1Q16. Its revenue reached IDR7.1trn (+132%YoY, -27% YoY), 19.3%/20.1%
to our/consensus target, above last year’s seasonality of 13% in 1Q16. Up to
1Q17, Waskita Karya has raked IDR11.65trn (+197.2% YoY) new contracts,
accounted for 16.6%/14.6% to our/company’s guidance FY17F. Maintain BUY on
the stock as its outlook remains positive. (Dony
Gunawan)
Wijaya Karya Persero (WIKA IJ, Neutral, TP:
IDR2,600), Positive Outlook Thus Far
Wijaya Karya posted
strong results in 1Q17 mainly driven by its Infrastructure & Building
segment that saw revenue almost doubled with profits from its joint operation
(JO) growing +395.1% YoY. The company’s new contracts have reached IDR17trn
or up 42.6% of our FY17 estimate. It expects this strong performance to
continue in 2Q17. On the other hand, we have not seen clarity on the
financial closure and construction of HSR projects. Moreover, the stock is
currently trading at 19.3x FY17F P/E, making it the most expensive
state-owned contractor. As such, we maintain our NEUTRAL call with an
unchanged IDR2,600 TP (9% upside).
¨ 1Q17 strong
results.
Wijaya Karya Persero’s (Wijaya Karya) revenue came in at IDR3.8trn
(+39.9%YoY) in 1Q17. This accounted for 17% of our FY17 estimate, which is in
line with last year’s seasonality. It was driven by the Infrastructure and
Building segment that saw its revenue nearly doubled from last year.
Its
1Q17 net profit stood at IDR245bn (+242.0%YoY), around 22% of our FY17 net
profit estimate, which was above last year’s seasonality of only 5%, but it
is in line with the average FY10-15 seasonality. It was mainly spurred by
profits from the JO, which was up by +395.1% YoY and higher interest income.
Its
GM was relatively stable at 10.8% in 1Q17, while its GM after JO improved
significantly to 14.7% (vs 11.8% in 1Q16). Thus, net margin was 6.4%, a surge
from only 2.6% in 1Q16.
¨ Update on HSR. Wijaya Karya has
signed a construction contract with Kereta Cepat Indonesia China (KCIC) worth
IDR15.8trn (nearly 30% to last year’s new contract) for the construction of
the High Speed Railway (HSR) last year. However, the financial closure with
the China representative have not been signed until now. Discussions between
Indonesia and China representatives are still on going. We still
conservatively expect IDR3trn in revenue from HSR this year, below the
company’s expectations of recording a third of the contract’s value.
¨ Stellar new
contract performance. The company has successfully booked IDR17trn worth of
new contracts in 1Q17 (+202% YoY), or 42.6% to our FY17 estimate. Having said
that, it aims to collect up to 60% of FY17F new contracts in 1H17, which
would be above the average past two years seasonality of 35% in 1H. Hence we
maintain our new contracts FY17 estimate at IDR40trn.
¨ Maintain NEUTRAL with an unchanged TP
of IDR2,600, as we see the stock as the most expensive state-owned contractor
in the market (trading at 19.3x FY17F P/E) with a single digit ROE this year.
We also view the delay on the HSR project as an overhang on the stock. (Dony Gunawan)
Link to report: Wijaya Karya Persero : Positive Outlook Thus Far
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Media Highlights:
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Corporate
Indosat to issue IDR3trn in bonds
Sampoerna Agro books IDR158bn net income in
1Q17
HM Sampoerna announces IDR12.5trn dividends
Puradelta Lestari records IDR222bn revenues
in 1Q17
Semen Baturaja’s profit up by 13%
Jasa Marga realizes 60% of budgeted capex
Indika Energy books positive results in
1Q17
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Our
Recent Publication:
|
|
Corporate News Flash: Surya Semesta
Internusa – Key Takeaways From ASEAN Small Cap Book Launch
|
|
Results Review: Perusahaan Gas Negara – Improvement
On Opex Normalisation And E&P Profit
|
|
Economics Update: BI Continues To Hold Key
Policy Rate In April
Link to report: BI
Continues To Hold Key Policy Rate In April
|
|
Results Review: Arwana Citramulia – Better
Sales Mix And Efficiency To Boost Earnings
|
|
Results Review: Bank Tabungan Negara – To
Stay Housing-Centric
Link to report: Bank
Tabungan Negara : To Stay Housing-Centric
|
|
Economics Update: Exports And Imports
Accelerate In March
Link to report: Exports
And Imports Accelerate In March
|
|
Reinitiating Coverage: Surya Semesta
Internusa – Subang Industrial Estate As a Future Driver
|
|
Sector Update: Retailing - Upper segments,
mid-ticket items seem to fare better
Link to report: Retailing - Upper
segments, mid-ticket items seem to fare better
|
|
Reinitiating Coverage: Delta Dunia Makmur
–Strong Projected Earnings Growth In 2017F
Link to report: Delta
Dunia Makmur : Strong Projected Earnings Growth In 2017F
|
|
Sector Update: Plantation – Inventory
Restocking Has Begun
Link to report: Regional
Plantation: Inventory Restocking Has Begun
|
|
Company Update: Bank Rakyat Indonesia –
Ample Room To Grow
Link to report: Bank
Rakyat Indonesia : Ample Room To Grow
|
|
Corporate News Flash: IPO Plan For F&B
Subsidiary, MAP Boga?
Link to report: Mitra
Adiperkasa : IPO Plan For F&B Subsidiary, MAP Boga?
|
Best regards,
Helmy Kristanto
Director
Head of Indonesia Research
PT. RHB Securities Indonesia
DID: (6221) 2970 7056
Fax: (6221) 2783 0777
Disclaimer: This message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and may contain information that is confidential and privileged. If you, the reader of this message, are not the intended recipient, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. If you have received this communication by mistake, please notify us immediately by return email and delete the original message. This message is transmitted on the condition that the recipient accepts the inherent risks in electronic data transmission and agrees to release RHB group and RHB Securities from any claim which the recipient may have as a result of any unauthorized duplication, reading or interference with the contents herein. The contents herein are made in the personal capacity of the above-named author and nothing herein shall be construed as professional advice or opinion rendered by RHB group and RHB Securities or on its behalf.
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Dear
Siti,
Good morning,
Delta
Dunia Makmur – Further Robust Volume Ahead
Delta Dunia should
book further increases in its mining contracting volume in the middle of the
year, after the seasonal 1Q rainfall, further bettering its outlook. The
company recorded stellar 1Q17 earnings of USD23.7m (+676% YoY), beating
consensus (57% of FY17F consensus). Compared to its closest peer, United
Tractors, it books much higher volume, while trading at a much cheaper
valuation. We reiterate our BUY call with IDR1,500 TP (35% upside).
¨ Better weather in
the middle of the year should further boost its mining contracting volume. Delta Dunia Makmur
(Delta Dunia) booked strong growth in its 1Q17 overburden removal (+35.9%YoY)
and coal getting (+30.8%YoY). Heavy rain, which is common in 1Q, led to Delta
Dunia booking 1Q17 mining contracting volume of around 23% of our FY17F (in
line with our expectation). In 2Q and 3Q, the weather should normalise (ie
less rainfall than in 1Q), which should lead to a further increase in Delta
Dunia’s mining contracting volume in these periods, and improve its outlook
further.
¨ Its volume growth
is much better than United Tractors’ Pamapersada Nusantara... For several years
now, Delta Dunia’s mining contracting volume growth has been stronger
than closest peer United Tractors (UNTR IJ, NEUTRAL, TP: IDR26,300). 1Q17 did
not disappoint – against United Tractors, Delta Dunia beat at overburden
removal growth (35.9% YoY vs the former’s 2.6%YoY) and coal getting (30.8%
YoY vs United Tractors’ 1.6% YoY).
¨ ... and it trades
at a much cheaper valuation. Delta Dunia trades at FY17F P/E of 7.6x
and EV/EBITDA of 4.1x, compared to United Tractors’ 15.8x and 7.2x
respectively). We think a continued series of excellent financial results may
lead the market to re-rate Delta Dunia’s price multiple.
¨ Stellar 1Q17
financial performance beats consensus expectation. Delta Dunia booked
strong 1Q17 earnings of USD23.7m (up nearly 700% YoY), significantly above
consensus expectation (reaching 57% of consensus FY17F), but still within our
expectation (26% of our FY17F). 1Q17 earnings growth was driven by a spike in
its mining contracting volume and better mining contracting fees, as the
average coal price stayed above USD75/tonne in 1Q17.
¨ Reiterate BUY call with TP of IDR1,500. Our TP of IDR1,500
is derived using DCF (WACC: 9.8%, TG: 1%), and implies 2017F P/E of 10.1x and
EV/EBITDA of 5x, which is still cheaper vs United Tractors. We reiterate our
BUY call as we think a potential near-term catalyst of a sizable consensus
earnings upgrade would boost its share price.
¨ The key risk to our call would
be a slump in coal prices. (Hariyanto
Wijaya, CFA, CPA)
Link
to report: Delta Dunia Makmur : Further Robust Volume Ahead
Link
to Daily report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 280417
|
|
|
|
Results Review:
|
|
Bank
Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN IJ, BUY, TP: IDR3,400), Bright
Outlook Ahead
We expect BTPN to
continue its focus on high-yield loan segments, with lower exposure to
pension loans post the release of its 1Q17 results, which were in line with
expectations. To compensate for lower SME loan yields, BTPN is expected to
push for more productive poor products, Pico loans and consumer financing. In
addition, its blended CoF should gradually improve on higher CASA deposits
coming from BTPN’s Wow! and Jenius initiatives. All in, NIMs
should stabilise at 11.6% this year. We maintain our BUY call and GGM-derived
TP of IDR3,400 (31% upside).
In
addition, BTPN is partnering with Home Credit, a global consumer financing
company, to provide white goods financing. Yet, we expect a 110bps drop in
loan yield to 21.6% this year (2016: 22.7%), due to the higher portion of SME
lending, which generates lower loan yields, and with minor contributions from
Pico loans and consumer financing.
Link to report: Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional : Bright Outlook Ahead
Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ, BUY, TP: IDR10,200),
1Q Results Highlights
Indofood’s 1Q17
earnings jumped 42% QoQ to IDR1.1trn. This was in line with our estimate, but
above consensus expectation reached 25% and 28% of our and consenses
full-year estimates, respectively. Robust earning was driven by widened EBIT
margin which improved to 16% in 1Q17 (from 12.1% in 4Q16) which we see this
is likely be driven by higher ASP. On our ground check, in 1Q17, Indofood CBP
raised its noodle selling price in range 1%-2% QoQ.
We maintain BUY on
Indofood CBP with DCF-based TP of IDR10,200 (17% upside), implying 27x/21x
FY17F-18F P/Es. (Andrey Wijaya)
Indofood Sukses
Makmur (INDF IJ, BUY, TP: IDR10,300), 1Q Results Highlights
Indofood Sukses’
1Q17 earning rose 33% QoQ. This was in line with our, but above
consensus expectation which achieved 25% and 27% of our and consensus
full-year estimates. Earning was driven by widened EBIT margin which improved
to 14.5% in 1Q17 (4Q16: 13.9%) which likely be driven by higher noodles
selling price.
We maintan BUY with
DCF-based IDR10,300 TP (22% upside), implying 19x/16x FY17F-18F P/Es
respectively. We see Indofood balance sheet risk become healthier after
Minzhong divestment with lower debts and lower foreign currency volatility
risk. (Andrey Wijaya)
Waskita Karya (WSKT
IJ, BUY, TP: IDR4,000), Strong 1Q17 results
Waskita Karya’s net
profit soared to IDR450bn (+253%YoY, -28%QoQ) in 1Q17, accounted for
18.2%/19.5% to our/consensus estimates, above its last year’s seasonality of
7.4% in 1Q16. Its revenue reached IDR7.1trn (+132%YoY, -27% YoY), 19.3%/20.1%
to our/consensus target, above last year’s seasonality of 13% in 1Q16. Up to
1Q17, Waskita Karya has raked IDR11.65trn (+197.2% YoY) new contracts,
accounted for 16.6%/14.6% to our/company’s guidance FY17F. Maintain BUY on
the stock as its outlook remains positive. (Dony
Gunawan)
Wijaya Karya Persero (WIKA IJ, Neutral, TP:
IDR2,600), Positive Outlook Thus Far
Wijaya Karya posted
strong results in 1Q17 mainly driven by its Infrastructure & Building
segment that saw revenue almost doubled with profits from its joint operation
(JO) growing +395.1% YoY. The company’s new contracts have reached IDR17trn
or up 42.6% of our FY17 estimate. It expects this strong performance to
continue in 2Q17. On the other hand, we have not seen clarity on the
financial closure and construction of HSR projects. Moreover, the stock is
currently trading at 19.3x FY17F P/E, making it the most expensive
state-owned contractor. As such, we maintain our NEUTRAL call with an
unchanged IDR2,600 TP (9% upside).
¨ 1Q17 strong
results.
Wijaya Karya Persero’s (Wijaya Karya) revenue came in at IDR3.8trn
(+39.9%YoY) in 1Q17. This accounted for 17% of our FY17 estimate, which is in
line with last year’s seasonality. It was driven by the Infrastructure and
Building segment that saw its revenue nearly doubled from last year.
Its
1Q17 net profit stood at IDR245bn (+242.0%YoY), around 22% of our FY17 net
profit estimate, which was above last year’s seasonality of only 5%, but it
is in line with the average FY10-15 seasonality. It was mainly spurred by
profits from the JO, which was up by +395.1% YoY and higher interest income.
Its
GM was relatively stable at 10.8% in 1Q17, while its GM after JO improved
significantly to 14.7% (vs 11.8% in 1Q16). Thus, net margin was 6.4%, a surge
from only 2.6% in 1Q16.
¨ Update on HSR. Wijaya Karya has
signed a construction contract with Kereta Cepat Indonesia China (KCIC) worth
IDR15.8trn (nearly 30% to last year’s new contract) for the construction of
the High Speed Railway (HSR) last year. However, the financial closure with
the China representative have not been signed until now. Discussions between
Indonesia and China representatives are still on going. We still
conservatively expect IDR3trn in revenue from HSR this year, below the
company’s expectations of recording a third of the contract’s value.
¨ Stellar new
contract performance. The company has successfully booked IDR17trn worth of
new contracts in 1Q17 (+202% YoY), or 42.6% to our FY17 estimate. Having said
that, it aims to collect up to 60% of FY17F new contracts in 1H17, which
would be above the average past two years seasonality of 35% in 1H. Hence we
maintain our new contracts FY17 estimate at IDR40trn.
¨ Maintain NEUTRAL with an unchanged TP
of IDR2,600, as we see the stock as the most expensive state-owned contractor
in the market (trading at 19.3x FY17F P/E) with a single digit ROE this year.
We also view the delay on the HSR project as an overhang on the stock. (Dony Gunawan)
Link to report: Wijaya Karya Persero : Positive Outlook Thus Far
|
|
Media Highlights:
|
|
Corporate
Indosat to issue IDR3trn in bonds
Sampoerna Agro books IDR158bn net income in
1Q17
HM Sampoerna announces IDR12.5trn dividends
Puradelta Lestari records IDR222bn revenues
in 1Q17
Semen Baturaja’s profit up by 13%
Jasa Marga realizes 60% of budgeted capex
Indika Energy books positive results in
1Q17
|
|
Our
Recent Publication:
|
|
Corporate News Flash: Surya Semesta
Internusa – Key Takeaways From ASEAN Small Cap Book Launch
|
|
Results Review: Perusahaan Gas Negara – Improvement
On Opex Normalisation And E&P Profit
|
|
Economics Update: BI Continues To Hold Key
Policy Rate In April
Link to report: BI
Continues To Hold Key Policy Rate In April
|
|
Results Review: Arwana Citramulia – Better
Sales Mix And Efficiency To Boost Earnings
|
|
Results Review: Bank Tabungan Negara – To
Stay Housing-Centric
Link to report: Bank
Tabungan Negara : To Stay Housing-Centric
|
|
Economics Update: Exports And Imports
Accelerate In March
Link to report: Exports
And Imports Accelerate In March
|
|
Reinitiating Coverage: Surya Semesta
Internusa – Subang Industrial Estate As a Future Driver
|
|
Sector Update: Retailing - Upper segments,
mid-ticket items seem to fare better
Link to report: Retailing - Upper
segments, mid-ticket items seem to fare better
|
|
Reinitiating Coverage: Delta Dunia Makmur
–Strong Projected Earnings Growth In 2017F
Link to report: Delta
Dunia Makmur : Strong Projected Earnings Growth In 2017F
|
|
Sector Update: Plantation – Inventory
Restocking Has Begun
Link to report: Regional
Plantation: Inventory Restocking Has Begun
|
|
Company Update: Bank Rakyat Indonesia –
Ample Room To Grow
Link to report: Bank
Rakyat Indonesia : Ample Room To Grow
|
|
Corporate News Flash: IPO Plan For F&B
Subsidiary, MAP Boga?
Link to report: Mitra
Adiperkasa : IPO Plan For F&B Subsidiary, MAP Boga?
|
Best regards,
Helmy Kristanto
Director
Head of Indonesia Research
PT. RHB Securities Indonesia
DID: (6221) 2970 7056
Fax: (6221) 2783 0777
Disclaimer: This message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and may contain information that is confidential and privileged. If you, the reader of this message, are not the intended recipient, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. If you have received this communication by mistake, please notify us immediately by return email and delete the original message. This message is transmitted on the condition that the recipient accepts the inherent risks in electronic data transmission and agrees to release RHB group and RHB Securities from any claim which the recipient may have as a result of any unauthorized duplication, reading or interference with the contents herein. The contents herein are made in the personal capacity of the above-named author and nothing herein shall be construed as professional advice or opinion rendered by RHB group and RHB Securities or on its behalf.
