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Good morning,
Real
Sales Growth Weakened in January, Stable Growth Expected in February
 The
Retail Sales Survey confirmed weaker annual sales growth in January 2017,
with the Retail Sales Index (RSI) decelerating from 10.5% YoY the month
earlier to 6.3% YoY due mainly to non-food sales. The
slowdown in non-food sales stemmed particularly from motor vehicles spare
parts category and information & communication equipment category, with
growth slowing respectively from 27.2% and 21.4% YoY to 16.6% and 12.5% YoY
in January.MoM,
retail sales data pointed to weaker real sales growth in Jan 17, reversing
into a contraction of 4.9%, from +8.1% in Dec 2016 on the back of all
commodity groups, particularly clothing (-9.2% MoM). Regionally,
retailers in five of the surveyed cities reported weaker annual real sales
growth in Jan 2017, especially in Surabaya and Manado. Meanwhile, four of
nine surveyed cities recorded stronger growth, particularly Jakarta,
Semarang, and Banjarmasin.Respondents
predicted stable real sales growth in February 2017 at 6.3% YoY.
The increase from food sales, with growth slightly picking up from 7.3% YoY
to 7.4% YoY in Jan 17, was offset by a slowdown in non-food sales, for which
growth moderated to 4.7% YoY, lower than 5% YoY in Jan 17. MoM, retail sales
in February is predicted to stay in negative territory, albeit with a smaller
contraction of 2.5%.Retailers
predicted higher inflationary pressures on goods & services in the next
three and six months (May & August 2017).Respondents
predicted higher sales in the next three months as seasonal demand spikes
during the holy fasting month of Ramadhan. Thereafter, retailers expected the
sales growth to moderate and return to normal in the next six months
(August). We believe weak real sales growth to
continue in February due to a combination of a very wet month, floods, weak
government spending, rising inflation, shorter effective days and political
instability. (Rizki Fajar)
Link to daily
report: Indonesia Morning Cuppa 100317
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Media
Highlights:
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Corporates
Telekomunikasi
Indonesia targets 10% revenue growth
Wijaya Karya looks
for IDR15trn in financing
Astra will pay
IDR351bn to Surya Internusa in early April
Adi Sarana Armada to
spend IDR1trn for buying new fleet
Jasa Angkasa Semesta
aims double digit growth this year
Motorcycle sales
down by 15%
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Our
Recent Publication:
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Sector Update: Consumer – Although Softer,
Spending Is Likely To Improve
Link to report: Although Softer, Spending Is Likely to Improve
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Sector Update: Retail – Rainy Month, Dry
Sales
Link to report: Rainy Month, Dry Sales
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Sector Update: Plantation – Varied Price
Views From POC 2017
Link to report: Plantation: Varied Price Views From POC 2017
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Results Review: Adaro Energy – Cash Rich
Link to report: Adaro Energy : Cash Rich
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Company Update: Telekomunikasi Indonesia –
A Clear Winner
Link to report: Telekomunikasi Indonesia : A Clear Winner
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IndonesiaStrategy: Needs Accelerant
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Initiating Coverage: Harum Energy – Higher
Production To Boost Earnings
Link to report: Harum
Energy : Higher Production To Boost Earnings
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Results Review: Japfa Comfeed – Weaker
Growth Outlook
Link to report: Japfa
Comfeed Indonesia : Weaker Growth Outlook
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Results Review: PP London Sumatra Indonesia
– CPO Production To Keep Recovering
Link to report: PP
London Sumatra Indonesia : CPO Production To Keep Recovering
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Economic Update – Inflation Continues to
Pick Up in February
Link to report: Inflation
Continues to Pick Up in February
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Best regards,
Helmy Kristanto
Director
Head of Indonesia
Research
PT. RHB Securities
Indonesia
DID: (6221) 2970 7056
Fax: (6221) 2783 0777
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