Economic Update:
Exports and Imports Accelerate in November
Exports and Imports Accelerate in November
Exports surged 21.3% YoY in November, mainly on a pick-up in
non-oil and gas exports. Moving forward, we envisage exports of goods and
services to return to growth of6.8% in 2017, from an estimate of -4.0% in 2016
on:
1. A more stable to modest
pick-up in primary commodity prices; and
2. A gradual improvement in
world merchandise trade volume.
¨ We expect
the current account deficit to improve in 4Q16. In
November, the tradesurplus narrowed to USD0.8bn, from +USD1.2bn in
October. Albeit lower, this points to a higher trade surplus in 4Q 2016,
suggesting that the country’s current account deficit in the balance of
payments could improve during the quarter.
¨ Exports
accelerated in November. This was mainly on account of a pick-up in
non-oil and gas exports, particularly the hard commodities due to rising
prices,and a smaller decline in oil product exports.
¨ A pick-up
in exports was broad-based. This was mainly on the back of a rebound in
exports to the EU, India, Australia and Taiwan, along with a pick-up in exports
to Japan, South Korea, China, ASEAN and US.
¨ Imports
registered a faster growth during the month. Imports picked up pace,
growing 9.9% YoY, pointing to recovery in domestic economic activities.
Kindly click the following link for the full report: Exports and Imports Accelerate in November
Rizki Fajar
Vice President
Economist
PT. RHB Securities
Indonesia
